Consumer Spec Pre-Market Research
Consumer tape opens mixed with global futures firmer after Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, WTI crude at ~$90 weighing on discretionary spend psychology. PM cut FY guidance despite Q1 beat as Zyn authorization delays and BAT’s Velo pressure the smoke-free ramp. BBY unveils CEO succession with Jason Bonfig replacing Corie Barry. TSCO takes a beating across the Street (Baird, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, DA Davidson all cut PTs) after pet-mix miss. Hotels lifted broadly at Baird (MAR, HLT, H, CHH, WH). ABNB upgraded at Wells Fargo. HTZ downgraded to Sell at Northcoast. HPC/Beauty complex reset lower at Morgan Stanley (PG, CL, CLX, EL, ELF, COTY). CCL cut, VIK initiated Positive. Tone: defensive rotation within consumer, cruise/hotel/OTA bifurcation intact.
STREET RESEARCH
Upgrades
Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $178
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $28
Downgrades
Driven Brands (DRVN) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
Hertz (HTZ) Cut to Sell at Northcoast; PT $5
Initiations
Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $106
Viking Holdings (VIK) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $100
Whirlpool (WHR) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $60
EARNINGS:
PM: Q1 BEATS BUT CUTS FY GUIDE AS ZYN DELAYS AND BAT VELO COMPETITION WEIGH HEAVILY
Philip Morris International posted Q1 EPS of $1.96, beating the $1.83 estimate, on revenue of $10.15 billion versus $9.91 billion consensus. However, the company cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.36-$8.51 from the prior $8.38-$8.53, citing increased competition in tobacco products and regulatory uncertainty around Zyn nicotine pouches. Popular pouch products have yet to clear the FDA despite a fast-track scheme, with agency scientists hesitant due to potential risks to new users. PM guided FY26 organic net revenue growth of 5-7%, organic operating income growth of 7-9%, and high-single-digit SFP shipment volume growth. Q2 adjusted EPS guided to $2.02-$2.07. Middle East conflict impact factored into forecast but not expected to be prolonged.
Mgmt said consumer is stable and does not assume a prolonger impact from ME war. Options implied 5% move. Call 9am.
UAL: BARCLAYS REITERATES OVERWEIGHT ON UNITED AIRLINES WITH ONE HUNDRED FIFTY DOLLAR PRICE TARGET
Barclays’ Brandon Oglenski reiterated Overweight with $150 price target on United Airlines. United delivered a relatively solid Q1 result despite higher jet fuel prices since March and provided a favorable Q2 outlook with midpoint EPS of $1.50, pointing to double-digit unit revenue gains. Management provided updated annual 2026 EPS guidance of $7-11 (down from prior $12-14) encompassing expected 2H capacity growth of flat to +2% and assuming 3Q revenue offset to higher fuel of 70-80% and 4Q offset of 85-100%. If lower energy prices continued, the higher end of range expected; if higher prices return, lower end more likely. Q2 capacity growth could end up close to 3-4% despite domestic schedules showing >7% expansion.
DANONE: shares trade well in Europe after the company posted decent sales (+2.7% vs. the Street +2.65%) despite headwinds from the Middle East war and the baby formula recall, and reiterated its full-year guidance
Danone Q1 organic sales growth of 2.7% was broadly in line with company-compiled consensus at 2.6%, with Americas at +3.4%. Reported sales of €6,708mn came 0.6% ahead of consensus. EMEA delivered +0.6% LFL ahead of consensus -0.1%, with EDP +3.2% and Waters +3.4% offsetting Specialized Nutrition -4.3% (IMF recall, Middle East conflict). Americas +3.4% beat consensus +2.5% with +2.5% volume/mix, North America LFL +1.5%. Asia Pacific +6.0% missed +7.0% consensus, though China/North Asia/Oceania grew +10.3%. Management maintained guidance of +3% to +5% LFL sales growth and recurring operating income growing faster than sales. Trades at 17.5x CY26 P/E and 10.2x EV/EBITDA.
ANALYST ACTIONS:
TSCO: FOUR BROKERS CUT PRICE TARGETS TO FIFTY DOLLARS AS PET-MIX HEADWIND DRIVES COMP MISS
Tractor Supply cut across the board following Q1 comp miss and full-year guide at risk. Baird’s Peter Benedict trimmed his target to $50 from $60, maintaining Outperform. Wells Fargo’s Zachary Fadem cut to $47 from $55, Overweight. Mizuho’s David Bellinger went to $50 from $58, Outperform. DA Davidson’s Michael Baker moved to $50 from $60, Buy. Companion pet mix created a >100bp comp headwind, with quarterly transaction growth negative for the first time since 2Q24. Management is addressing assortment holes via an accelerated FreshPet rollout to ~700 locations versus 500 previously planned. Big-ticket, garden, wildlife/ammo and apparel have picked up into April, putting Q2 comps on pace for +1-3%. Guide recalibration possible with Q2 results.
Hotels: BAIRD LIFTS TARGETS ACROSS THE COMPLEX AS RECOVERY THESIS INTACT INTO Q1 PRINTS
Baird’s Michael Bellisario raised price targets across his lodging coverage ahead of Q1 earnings. Marriott (MAR) to $388 from $358 (Neutral); Hilton (HLT) to $358 from $325 (Outperform); Hyatt (H) to $183 from $182 (Neutral); Choice Hotels (CHH) to $132 from $120 (Outperform); Wyndham (WH) to $100 from $88 (Outperform). The PT lift reflects sector re-rating on improving RevPAR trajectory, group bookings strength, and easing supply pressure. Wells Fargo’s Cooper Clark also raised lodging REIT targets: Ryman (RHP) to $114 from $105 (Overweight), Host (HST) to $23 from $20 (Overweight), DiamondRock (DRH) to $11 from $10 (Equal Weight). Street positions constructive into prints.
ABNB: WELLS FARGO UPGRADES TO OVERWEIGHT WITH PT RAISED TO ONE HUNDRED SEVENTY-EIGHT DOLLARS
Wells Fargo’s Ken Gawrelski upgraded Airbnb from Equal Weight to Overweight with price target raised to $178 from $136, implying roughly 25% upside from the $142.65 close. The upgrade reflects conviction in Airbnb’s product roadmap, international expansion optionality, and the company’s Experiences relaunch driving incremental take rate. Stock has underperformed OTA peers YTD, creating favorable risk/reward into peak summer booking season. Wells Fargo views current valuation as discounting execution risk rather than reflecting the platform’s structural advantages in alternative accommodations. The call adds to growing constructive Street positioning on consumer travel exposure as macro peak-uncertainty narrative pressures ease.
HTZ: NORTHCOAST DOWNGRADES TO SELL WITH FIVE DOLLAR PRICE TARGET ON BROAD CONCERNS
Northcoast’s John Healy downgraded Hertz Global from Neutral to Sell with a $5 price target, implying ~30% downside from the $7.17 close. The downgrade reflects continued concerns around fleet residual values, elevated leverage, and competitive pressure from Avis and Enterprise. Hertz is also seeing unusual put option volume per Street Insider’s flow tracker. The call compounds negative sentiment on the rental car operator as Q1 earnings approach. With rental rates normalizing post-COVID and EV transition costs weighing on the fleet economics, the bear case centers on free cash flow deterioration and refinancing risk as 2025 notes approach maturity.
WHR: CITI INITIATES WHIRLPOOL AT NEUTRAL WITH SIXTY DOLLAR PRICE TARGET
Citi’s Kyle Menges initiated coverage on Whirlpool Corporation with a Neutral rating and a $60 price target, implying modest upside from the $56.91 close. The source document does not include accompanying analyst commentary on the thesis, sector positioning, or estimate framework behind the initiation. The Neutral stance on the major appliance manufacturer likely reflects balanced risk/reward amid ongoing housing market uncertainty, tariff exposure on imported components, and competitive pressure from Asian appliance manufacturers, offset by cost reduction initiatives and potential housing recovery leverage. Further color would require the full Citi note, but the launch establishes Citi coverage at a neutral bias versus Street consensus.
KDP: BNP PARIBAS EXANE UPGRADES KEURIG DR PEPPER TO NEUTRAL WITH TWENTY-EIGHT DOLLAR PRICE TARGET
BNP Paribas Exane’s Kevin Grundy upgraded Keurig Dr Pepper from Underperform to Neutral with a $28 price target, roughly 6% above the $26.44 close. The source document does not include accompanying analyst commentary explaining the thesis shift. The upgrade closes the prior bear call and likely reflects the view that concerns around Keurig at-home coffee pod volume declines and competitive pressure in CSDs/energy are now adequately priced in. KDP’s portfolio split between the pressured Keurig coffee franchise and the outperforming Dr Pepper Snapple beverage assets continues to drive mixed Street views. The stock has meaningfully underperformed beverage peers, and BNP sees risk/reward as balanced rather than constructive.
CCL: SUSQUEHANNA CUTS PRICE TARGET TO THIRTY DOLLARS WHILE MAINTAINING POSITIVE STANCE
Susquehanna’s Christopher Stathoulopoulos cut his Carnival target to $30 from $40 while maintaining Positive rating. The reduction likely reflects fuel cost headwinds with WTI near $90 and Iran-related Middle East routing disruptions that have weighed on Eastern Mediterranean itineraries. Despite the target cut, the Positive rating preserves the bull case on booking curve visibility, onboard spending strength, and continued deleveraging. Separately, Susquehanna initiated Viking Holdings (VIK) at Positive with a $100 price target, citing the premium ocean/river cruise operator’s differentiated demographic targeting and strong forward booking visibility. Cruise complex remains bifurcated between mass-market pressured names and premium operators.
HPC SECTOR: MORGAN STANLEY LOWERS HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS EPS BELOW CONSENSUS POST IRAN COST PRESSURE PREFERS BEVERAGES
Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates for HPC companies on cost risk following the Iran conflict, which they believe will be worse than the market expects. HPC has greater cost ties to oil and limited pricing power versus beverages. Forward HPC EPS revisions and guidance will likely disappoint despite slightly better Q1 EPS. Underappreciated cost pressures include surfactants, tallow, and other less-visible commodities, plus supply challenges under force majeure. Stock pressure is less clear given ~900 bps of HPC underperformance versus beverages already. CL guidance likely cut to flat-LSD from LSD-MSD; CHD likely points to low end of +5–8% range. The firm prefers Coke and Monster as preferred ST/LT Overweights with pricing power.
DRVN: WILLIAM BLAIR DOWNGRADES DRIVEN BRANDS TO MARKET PERFORM ON RESTATEMENT DELAYS
William Blair’s Phillip Blee downgraded Driven Brands from Outperform to Market Perform following the additional delay in reporting the 10-K and audited Q1 results. While CFO Mike Diamond has remained in the seat as restatements may be a result of his clean-up efforts since joining in August 2024, the lack of stability in the finance department and reporting unreliability have been long-standing pain points for the stock. Short interest is near all-time highs at over 21%. The analyst expects the company’s efforts to rebuild credibility will be harder-won against increasing bearish sentiment. The auto services franchise operator has lost meaningful institutional support as governance concerns compound operational execution questions.
SBUX: MIZUHO RAISES STARBUCKS PRICE TARGET TO $105 ON BACK TO STARBUCKS TRACTION
Mizuho’s Nick Setyan raised Starbucks’ target to $105 from $95 while maintaining Neutral. The PT lift reflects improving operational momentum under CEO Brian Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” turnaround, which has shown signs of traction in U.S. same-store sales trajectory. However, the Neutral rating reflects Mizuho’s view that the turnaround remains early-stage with execution risk around service time reductions, barista staffing investments, and China recovery. Consensus continues to move higher on U.S. comp improvement, but international (particularly China) remains pressured. Valuation has expanded on turnaround optimism, and Mizuho sees the risk/reward as balanced at current levels ahead of the Q2 print.
DPZ: MIZUHO CUTS DOMINO’S PIZZA TARGET TO FOUR HUNDRED SEVENTY DOLLARS MAINTAINING OUTPERFORM
Mizuho’s Nick Setyan cut Domino’s Pizza target to $470 from $500 while maintaining Outperform. The PT reduction reflects broader restaurant group derating on consumer softness concerns, lapping tough comps, and lower multiple on normalized EPS. However, the Outperform rating preserves the bull case on DPZ’s structural franchise economics, international royalty growth, and digital moat. The company’s aggregator partnership with Uber Eats continues to drive incremental sales, while the value-focused menu architecture positions DPZ defensively if consumer pressure worsens. Q1 results and aggregator contribution will be the near-term catalyst.
BIRK: STIFEL TRIMS BIRKENSTOCK PRICE TARGET TO $56 AHEAD OF Q2 PRINT
Stifel’s Peter McGoldrick trimmed Birkenstock’s target to $56 from $58 while maintaining Buy. The PT cut reflects more difficult consumer trends in Europe and regional conflict in the Middle East (2-3% of revenue). The high-end of revenue guidance remains a reasonable expectation, though Stifel tempers its pass-through to FY26 guidance. Zoomed out, Stifel continues to favor Birkenstock for its global consumer momentum, casual footwear market share opportunity, and advantaged margin structure. The long-term algorithm for +15-17% cc adjusted EPS growth through FY28E remains a reasonable baseline despite capacity constraints. Stifel encourages investors to consider the scarcity value of double-digit topline growth footwear brands.
HD: EVERCORE BUILDING FOR THE TURN $415 BASE CASE 17 DOLLARS EPS POWER WHEN MARKET RECOVERS PRO TAM 1.2 TRILLION
Evercore conducted a deep-dive visit with Home Depot management including CFO Richard McPhail, CMO Billy Bastek, EVP Pro Mike Rowe, and CEO Ted Decker. End demand remains subdued with spending per unit running 11% below trend and 2026 expected to be the fourth straight year of negative comp traffic. Despite this, AUR expansion of ~300 bps and share gains should drive 0–2% comps even with traffic down 1%. Pro is now well over half the business and the TAM has expanded to $1.2 trillion. Two recent bolt-on acquisitions added robotic supply chain capabilities (SIMPL). The base case of $415 assumes a 20% premium to market on 2027 EPS, with $17+ EPS power once share gains scale. Leverage returns to ~2x in 2027.
MACRO & NEWS
BofA Consumer Private Label Tracker: EXPANDED COVERAGE SHOWS SHIFTING DYNAMICS ACROSS PACKAGED FOOD
Bank of America published its quarterly private label tracker, analyzing private label performance across packaged food subcategories and company exposure levels. The analysis now includes expanded channel coverage from Nielsen, incorporating data from Costco, Amazon P1, and Pet Specialty stores. The comparison baseline has shifted from pre-COVID levels to 2023 levels to better measure share changes following years of inflation. Private label penetration continues to track consumer budget pressure dynamics across the packaged food landscape, with implications for branded CPG pricing power, volume recovery timelines, and retailer negotiating leverage. Names with greater private label exposure face ongoing share monitoring.