Consumer Spec Pre-Market Wrap
Highlights: PG, ONON Checks, Electrolux US weakness, Las Vegas weakness
U.S. equity futures are mixed Friday morning — S&P 500 flat, Dow -179 pts/-36bp, Nasdaq +160 pts/+59bp, Russell 2000 -26bp — as the post-ceasefire bid in tech masks real cracks underneath, particularly across consumer-facing names. Brent is grinding another 170bp higher to $106.85, the kind of move that quietly eats into discretionary wallets even as headlines focus on Hormuz tanker risk and Iran's tolling threat. Treasuries are flat across the curve and the DXY is unchanged, so there's no rates relief to lean on.
The consumer tape is already showing strain: Accor warned of a meaningful UAE/Middle East demand hit, Electrolux is collapsing in Europe on -11.6% North American sales plus a SEK9B rights issue, Nike announced another 1,400 layoffs, and Boyd Gaming flagged softness in the Vegas locals market. PG, CHTR, and HCA print before the open, with final April Michigan sentiment at 10am — the revision should look better than the prelim since the initial survey predated the ceasefire. Eyes already on next week's wave: KO, KMB, SBUX, MDLZ, CMG, AMZN, YUM, HSY, MO, AAPL, EL, and CL — basically the entire consumer complex in five sessions, against an FOMC backdrop and PCE Thursday. The setup is uncomfortable: a stagflationary tailwind from Iran that won't fully unwind even on a deal, against a consumer that was already trading down before crude moved.
STREET RESEARCH
Upgrades
Polaris (PII) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $66
Southwest Air (LUV) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $36.10
Downgrades
Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $34
DraftKings (DKNG) Cut to Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC
Flutter (FLUT) Cut to Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC
Initiations
Shake Shack (SHAK) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $120
Earnings
PG: PROCTER & GAMBLE BEATS Q3 EPS BY 3 CENTS; REVENUE TOPS, GUIDES FY26 EPS LOWER END
P&G reported Q3 EPS of $1.59 vs. $1.56 consensus on revenue of $21.2B (vs. $20.57B Street). Volumes grew in three of five segments, led by premium hair (Pantene) and skin care (Olay) launches in North America and Europe. Wealthier consumers continued spending on premium products even as lower-income households trade down. Management guided FY26 EPS to $6.83-$7.09 (vs. $6.94 consensus), expecting the lower end of its flat-to-+4% range. P&G flagged a $150M after-tax hit from Middle East-driven commodity inflation, feedstock exposure, and logistics disruption tied to oil at ~$100/bbl impacting plastics, paper packaging, and freight. Drag could intensify into FY27 if conflict persists.
Guidance:
FY26 Guidance:
• Now lower end of range Core EPS: +0-4% or $6.83-$7.09. Current Bloomberg consensus assumes +1.7% YoY growth and $6.95 EPS. Barclays Research $6.90, +1.0% growth.
• Implied F4Q26 EPS: $1.37-$1.44, Consensus $1.51 vs. Barclays $1.48.
• Reiterated Organic sales growth: +0-4%. Barclays Research +1.2%.
• Reiterated Net sales growth: +1-5%. Consensus currently stands at +2.7%.
• Commodity costs: now $150 mm after-tax headwind (from neutral)
Jefferies: Solid quarter, with both organic (+3% vs Street +1.9%) and EPS ($1.59 vs $1.56) topping expectations. Volumes were up 2%, and all segments delivered as expected, with Strength in Beauty (+4pp ahead) and Baby, Fem & Family Care (+1pp ahead). F26 guidance was reiterated with EPS towards the lower end of the range (Street is already there +2%). Commodity cost issue is the topic for the out yea
Boyd Gaming Q1 Beats on Regional Strength but Vegas Locals Recovery Slips Into 2027 Story Territory
Morgan Stanley on the report: We could see BYD shares come under pressure tomorrow as the incremental news from the release was largely in Vegas segments (Locals/Downtown), which disappointed in the context of seemingly stronger Vegas strip visitation. Management did flag encouraging demand trends through April across its portfolio, and some of its recent growth projects (Cadence, Ameristar) are showing early positive signs.
However, the company is likely to still see disruptions in the Locals market (Suncoast now expected to be done in 3Q this year & Orleans next year) and management could not point to a specific timeline around Locals & Downtown destination business bouncing — a key concern given expansion projects by competitor RRR. We do see accelerating capital return (~10% annualized return with buyback & dividend) as offering some backstop, but stay EW as we look for more clarity around stabilization in Locals and/or greater visibility around returns on various growth projects in the medium term.
Electrolux Q1 EBIT Misses 70% as US Tariffs and Demand Slowdown Crush Margins Despite EMEA LatAm Growth
Electrolux Q1 was a US-driven disaster. North American sales collapsed 11.6% as tariff-related costs spiked and market demand slowed sharply — a stark divergence from EMEA +3.6% and LatAm +8.0% organically. Group sales of SEK 29,543m missed consensus by 4%, with reported sales -9% and organic growth of just -0.5% versus +2% expected. The US weakness flowed straight to the bottom line: Adjusted EBIT of SEK 198m landed 70% below consensus (vs SEK 652m), further pressured by customer rebate provision changes and a Frigidaire gas range recall. Net debt/EBITDA jumped to 3.8x on rising working capital — a real balance sheet flag for a name where the entire profit engine just seized in its biggest market.
Analyst Actions
ONON: Jefferies Highlights Cracks in South Florida as Core SKUs Hit 50% Off Across JD Foot Locker Nordstrom
Jefferies' South Florida channel checks across JD Sports, Foot Locker, a Run Specialty retailer, Nordstrom, and Nordstrom Rack directly contradict ONON management's full-price selling narrative. Core SKUs in core sizes (6–11) were marked down at every wholesale door visited, with a Miami Run Specialty shop — historically a premium curated channel — running a dedicated rack of core On sneakers at 50% off. Foot Locker tags showed multi-touch markdowns, signaling initial cuts failed to clear. Most damaging: identical models sat at full price at Nordstrom while discounted at Nordstrom Rack down the street, with Nordstrom's floor heavy in aged inventory. Sell-through is clearly slowing where it matters most.
KDP: KEURIG DR PEPPER PT LOWERED TO 32 AT JEFFERIES; HOLD RATING MAINTAINED ON BEVERAGE PRESSURE
Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala lowered the price target on Keurig Dr Pepper to $32 (from $34) while maintaining a Hold rating. The cut comes amid broader scrutiny of beverage demand trends and category-level pressures across the staples complex. KDP also appeared in unusual call option volume flow this morning, suggesting investor positioning ahead of upcoming events. The reduced target reflects more conservative assumptions on volume/pricing trajectory in cold beverages and at-home coffee, where KDP faces mixed competitive dynamics. Hold-rated stance signals Jefferies sees fairly balanced risk/reward at current levels with limited near-term catalysts to drive multiple expansion. Watch read-through to broader non-alc beverage complex including KO and PEP.
POOL: POOL CORP PT RAISED TO 230 AT WELLS FARGO AND 240 AT STIFEL ON Q1 BEAT, GUIDANCE INTACT
Wells Fargo’s Sam Reid raised POOL to $230 (from $215), Equal Weight maintained. Stifel’s Andrew Carter took his target to $240 (from $232), Hold. Stifel was surprised at yesterday’s underperformance (POOL -2.4% vs. S&P -0.4%) given Q1 EPS outperformed the above-consensus estimate on stronger revenue. Excluding 100 bps of transitory revenue tailwinds (70 bps FX, 30 bps pull-forward), EPS still beat consensus. Reiterated guidance offers upside given implied revenue deceleration post-Q1 against confidence in a stable/improving category. Stifel now models $11.24 FY26E EPS at the high end of updated guidance. Gross margin concerns linger but management commentary provided comfort.
PENN: PENN ENTERTAINMENT PT RAISED ACROSS THE BOARD 18-24 AFTER STRONG Q1 RETAIL BEAT
PENN saw a sweep of post-print PT raises after a strong 1Q26 with $429M EBITDAR (3% above consensus). Stifel and Mizuho both raised to $23, Barclays to $24, Citizens reiterated $24, Citi to $18, Wells Fargo to $19. Retail casinos beat across all four segments, with rated-play improvement at the highest level in nearly three years. Casino margins expanded 12 bps — first time since 2021. The M Resort investment drove outsized strength in West, beating estimates. Mizuho’s Chaiken flagged PENN as a near-term best idea pre-print. Aurora summer ROI looks strong. Stifel models close to $4/share FCF, implying ~3x-turn discount to peers.
CHDN: CHURCHILL DOWNS PT RAISED ACROSS BOARD — MIZUHO 155, CITIZENS 149, WELLS FARGO 132 ON Q1 BEAT
Citizens’ Jordan Bender raised CHDN to $149 (Market Outperform), Mizuho to $155, and Wells Fargo to $132 (Overweight). Q1 EBITDA of $257M was up 5% Y/Y and 3% above consensus, generating record $276M discretionary FCF. The clean quarter was needed with the stock down 16% YTD versus broader gaming -3%. Headline risk has weighed on shares for two years, but legislative sessions concluded with little operational impact. Management offered encouraging commentary on long-term Kentucky and Virginia historical horse racing growth, plus positive sentiment heading into the Kentucky Derby. The HHR business inflection thesis remains intact with regulatory overhang clearing.
MTN: VAIL RESORTS PT LOWERED TO 125 AT WELLS FARGO AND 140 AT BOFA AFTER WORST SNOWFALL IN 50 YEARS
Wells Fargo’s Anthony Bonadio lowered MTN to $125 (from $135), Equal Weight maintained. BofA’s Shaun Kelley cut to $140 (from $165), Neutral. BofA had expected Vail to come in at or below the low end of guidance given weak end-of-season visitation; with the worst snowfall in 50 years, holding the low end was a solid performance. From here, all eyes turn to season pass sales, which are running slightly behind expectations, weighing on shares (-5% vs. S&P -0.4% yesterday). BofA’s lower PO reflects a slightly lower target EBITDA multiple (9x vs. 10x prior). Structural questions around season pass model and consumer experience persist.
RCL: ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES PT LOWERED TO 318 AT TRUIST SECURITIES; HOLD MAINTAINED ON LEISURE CAUTION
Truist Securities analyst C. Patrick Scholes lowered the price target on Royal Caribbean Cruises to $318 (from $327) while maintaining a Hold rating. The trim comes amid broader leisure sector caution as Middle East tensions weigh on travel demand and fuel cost outlooks. With WTI crude near $100 and bunker fuel pressure following, cruise operators face margin headwinds even as booking trends remain intact. Hold-rated stance suggests Truist sees fairly balanced risk/reward at current levels with limited catalysts to drive significant upside near-term. Watch broader cruise complex (CCL, NCLH) for read-through, particularly given consumer discretionary sentiment caution flagged across multiple verticals this morning.
BYD: BOYD GAMING PT LOWERED AT MIZUHO 96, BARCLAYS 86, STIFEL 91 ON VEGAS DESTINATION WEAKNESS
Mizuho’s Ben Chaiken lowered BYD to $96 (from $99), Outperform. Barclays cut to $86, Stifel to $91. Q1 EBITDA of $317M came in slightly above the $316M estimate, but Suncoast disruption (newer development) and continued destination weakness will impact 2H. While overall Street numbers likely remain unchanged, 2H Vegas comes down — pressuring sentiment despite regional strength offsetting Vegas softness. There was narrative that Vegas was improving, but from a Locals perspective, that appears more like a ‘27 story now. Mizuho remains constructive on the regional gaming setup but acknowledges air has come out of the recovery story near-term.
GLPI: GAMING AND LEISURE PROPERTIES PT RAISED TO 50 AT STIFEL POST Q1 BEAT AND GUIDANCE RAISE
Stifel’s Simon Yarmak raised GLPI to $50 (from $48), Hold rating maintained. GLPI raised 2026 AFFO/sh guidance to $4.08-$4.12 (+5.7% Y/Y midpoint) versus prior $4.06-$4.11 and Street $4.09. Guidance excludes future acquisitions/dispositions but includes ~$590-$640M of additional fundings tied to current development projects ($750-$800M total expected for the year), spread evenly across remaining quarters. Includes $225M of funding for PENN’s Aurora facility in Q2 and $363.3M forward equity settlement on June 1. The Bally’s Lincoln $700M acquisition closed at an 8.0% cap rate, adding $56M initial cash rent to Master Lease II at 2.2x pro-forma rent coverage.
SHAK: GUGGENHEIM INITIATES SHAKE SHACK AT BUY WITH 120 TARGET; UNIT GROWTH AND MARGIN OPPORTUNITY
Guggenheim’s Gregory Francfort initiated coverage on Shake Shack with a Buy rating and $120 price target. The analyst sees 30%-33%+ cash-on-cash returns supporting low-teens unit growth, with a margin self-help story under CEO Rob Lynch and near-term SSS upside driving positive estimate revisions. SHAK trades at 16x 2027 EV/EBITDA — a >1.5x discount to CMG despite a stronger growth algorithm and longer store-growth runway. Risks include cost-cutting impairing customer experience and consumers trading down to lower-priced QSR amid 2H consumer uncertainty (labor market, oil prices, midterms). Margin upside could shift further toward G&A savings, adding profit-growth runway. Shares closed at $97.59.
TPR: TAPESTRY PT RAISED TO 180 AT BTIG ON COACH STRENGTH AND OPERATING MARGIN EXPANSION OUTLOOK
BTIG analyst Robert Drbul raised Tapestry’s target to $180 (from $175), Buy rating maintained, ahead of F3Q26 earnings on May 7. He anticipates 11.8% revenue growth driven by continued Coach strength (~+20%) and +80 bps of operating margin expansion to 18.3%, even as gross margin faces U.S. tariff headwinds. F3Q26 EPS estimate is $1.25, +21% Y/Y. The new $180 target is based on 25x CY27 EPS, reflecting optimism around underlying Coach strength and multiple ongoing earnings drivers. Tapestry continues to outperform handbag peers as the Coach brand resonates with younger consumers, while accessible luxury positioning insulates from trade-down dynamics affecting other discretionary categories.
HAS: HASBRO PT RAISED TO 113 AT BOFA SECURITIES AFTER POSITIVE Q1 PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT FROM COMPANY
BofA’s Jason Haas raised Hasbro’s target to $113 (from $100), Buy maintained. Shares jumped +6.6% yesterday after HAS provided a positive Q1 revenue and operating income update and reiterated 2026 outlook following the March 28 unauthorized network access incident. BofA raised Q1 estimates to the higher end of the updated ranges, with Wizards of the Coast segment providing the biggest revenue upside (though segment details weren’t broken out). The new $113 target rolls valuation methodology from 2026E to 2027E. Magic: The Gathering momentum continues to anchor the bull case as the digital/physical hybrid model demonstrates secular share gains in the broader gaming category, offsetting more cyclical consumer toy headwinds.
BLMN: JPMORGAN DOWNGRADES BLOOMIN’ BRANDS TO UNDERWEIGHT WITH 6 PRICE TARGET NEAR CURRENT PRICE
JPMorgan analyst John Ivankoe downgraded Bloomin’ Brands from Neutral to Underweight with a $6 price target, signaling further downside from yesterday’s $6.39 close. The cut adds to growing skepticism around casual dining operators facing simultaneous pressure from value-seeking consumers, beef cost inflation, and competitive intensity from QSR formats. BLMN’s leverage and limited visibility on Outback brand revitalization remain key concerns. The Underweight rating suggests JPM sees structural rather than cyclical issues weighing on the franchise. With consumer trade-down dynamics intensifying as flagged by P&G and others, full-service casual dining concepts face the greatest exposure to mid-income wallet pressure heading into a softer 2H consumer setup.
TXRH: TEXAS ROADHOUSE PT LOWERED TO 176 AT CITI ON CASUAL DINING DEMAND AND BEEF COST CONCERNS
Citi analyst Jon Tower lowered the price target on Texas Roadhouse to $176 (from $184) while maintaining a Neutral rating. The cut reflects ongoing concerns about casual dining traffic trends and beef cost pressure. With New World Screwworm cases accelerating in Mexico (per Raymond James cattle commentary noting 193 new weekly cases and continued spread toward the Texas border), beef supply visibility remains compromised given the halt in U.S. cattle imports from Mexico (~4% of total U.S. cattle in 2024). TXRH’s exposure to commodity beef pricing makes it particularly vulnerable to extended Mexican import restrictions. Neutral rating implies Citi sees limited near-term catalysts to drive multiple expansion despite operational execution remaining strong relative to peers.
PII: RAYMOND JAMES UPGRADES POLARIS TO OUTPERFORM WITH 66 TARGET ON SECTION 232 TARIFF ADVANTAGE
Raymond James analyst Joseph Altobello upgraded Polaris from Market Perform to Outperform with a $66 price target. The upgrade reflects expected shifts in U.S. powersports competitive dynamics from the Trump Administration’s 4/2 amendment to Section 232 tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and copper (effective 4/6). While both PII and BRP face higher tariffs, the relative impact appears far greater for DOO than PII given Polaris’ domestic manufacturing base, likely resulting in market share gains over time. Shares closed at $59.41. The pair-trade reflects a structural rather than cyclical view, positioning PII as the relative winner in a tariff-disrupted competitive landscape with sustained margin and share advantages over BRP.
PLNT: PLANET FITNESS PT LOWERED TO 90 AT STIFEL ON FITNESS CONSUMER AND GROWTH OUTLOOK CAUTION
Stifel lowered the price target on Planet Fitness to $90, reflecting more cautious assumptions on the value-tier fitness consumer and unit growth outlook. The trim comes amid broader caution on consumer discretionary services exposed to lower-income wallet pressure, where trade-down dynamics flagged by P&G and others suggest the bottom quartile of consumers continue to feel stretched. PLNT’s value proposition typically holds up well in such environments, but membership growth and franchisee unit development cadence remain key debates. The lower target signals more measured expectations on the near-term setup despite the franchise’s structural advantages in low-cost gym positioning relative to premium fitness peers.
LUV: HSBC UPGRADES SOUTHWEST TO HOLD WITH 36.10 TARGET; RAYMOND JAMES RAISES TO 55 ON TRANSFORMATION
HSBC analyst Achal Kumar upgraded Southwest from Reduce to Hold with PT lifted to $36.10 (from $24.40). LUV hasn’t withdrawn its $4.00 EPS guidance but consensus sits at $2.73, suggesting the Street has already adjusted for higher fuel. Q2 RASM guide of +16.5% to +18.5% impressed, with 60% of Q1 customers upgrading from base product (vs. 20% prior year). Half of the 11.2% RASM increase came from revenue initiatives. Starlink ultra-fast Wi-Fi rollout to 300 planes by end-2026 should improve customer experience. Raymond James separately raised LUV to $55. Transformation momentum is finally being recognized after years of skepticism around revenue initiative execution.
AAL: EVERCORE ISI MAINTAINS IN LINE ON AMERICAN AIRLINES, FLAGS NEED FOR CAPACITY DISCIPLINE AHEAD
Evercore ISI analyst Duane Pfennigwerth reiterated an In Line rating and $14 price target on American Airlines, framing the Q1 print as “Smaller 1Q Loss, No Time for Capacity Complacency.” Shares closed at $11.78. The cautious framing reflects ongoing concerns around industry capacity discipline as carriers navigate higher fuel costs from Middle East tensions and competitive pressure across domestic routes. With WTI near $100, fuel cost pass-through capability becomes a key differentiator versus peers. AAL’s leverage profile and need for sustained free cash flow generation to deleverage continues to weigh on the equity story relative to better-capitalized network peers, despite stable demand backdrop and structural industry consolidation benefits.
GAMBLING: MOFFETTNATHANSON DOUBLE-DOWNGRADES DKNG AND FLUT TO NEUTRAL, ENTIRE SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE
MoffettNathanson downgraded both DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment to Neutral from Buy. DraftKings fell 1.49%, Flutter dropped 0.80%, PENN declined 1.16%, and Super Group (SGHC) rose 0.40%. MoffettNathanson admitted being “very late” to the downgrades, with stocks already selling off from 2024 highs and taking another material step down YTD. Their core belief that valuations remain attractive on conservative longer-term forecasts is no longer enough to maintain Buy recommendations. The sector-wide rating reset signals a potential capitulation moment for OSB names, with sentiment dynamics now firmly bearish despite valuation support. Read-through pressure across the broader gambling complex including BALY, RSI, and CZR.
Macro & News
Employment Cos. Survey Improves To Highest Level In Over A Year While Restaurants Survey Decelerate
The Evercore ISI Employment Cos. Survey rose from 50.5 to 51.9 its highest level since Feb.’25 on improvement from temp and perm placement. Following moderation last year, the recent data shows signs of stabilizing
After increasing to its highest level since February 2023, the Evercore ISI Restaurants Survey pulled back from 66.0 to 56.3. Sales have been choppy in 2026, but the overall tone is better than much of last year. Marketing strategies and improved weather have lifted sales in recent weeks despite higher gas prices and general uncertainty
ISI Restaurant deceleration in line to what BofA highlighted:
Interesting maco charts:
After adjusting for price increases, real retail sales contracted and have been stagnant over the past nine months
More timely data for April indicates that consumer spending is already slowing sharply, suggesting consumer strain ahead
Calendar:
