Consumer Spec Pre-Market Wrap
SBUX (+), COCO (+), YUM, EAT, MDLZ, CAR (-) | META, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT Tonight | FOMC, Consumer Strength, VSCO Upgrade, RV Shipments (-), Refund Stimulus Weak, SBUX Pre
US equity futures are flat-to-up small heading into Wednesday's open — S&P +5bp, Nasdaq +33bp, Dow flat, Russell 2000 flat — as a heavy slug of consumer-friendly earnings tries to cut through Iran-blockade noise and a sticky Brent print. Visa called out spending as "resilient" with FQ2 net revenue up 17%, the fastest since 2022, and Starbucks delivered blow-out US comps of +7.1% with transactions +4.3% — a real volume signal, not just price. Adidas printed +14% FXN sales growth despite calling the retail backdrop "very volatile and heavily discounted," while Booking trimmed guidance on ~200bp of Middle East drag. All eyes now turn to the 2pm FOMC (no move expected, but Powell's tone matters), then META, GOOGL, AMZN, and MSFT after the bell — followed by Thursday's PCE print, where Street looks for headline to jump 70bp to +3.5%.
Consumer Pre-Market
Consumer pre-market actually feels constructive today — a refreshing change from the recent doom loop. SBUX stole the show with a Q2 blowout (+7.1% NA comps, FY26 guide raised) and PT bumps from Baird, Evercore, Wells Fargo — though the NA margin miss is the real tell on whether this gap holds. COCO is the cleanest beat-and-raise in the group with 30% volume growth, while MDLZ, EAT, and YUM all printed solid. VSCO double-upgraded at BofA to $68. Beverages firm with KO PT raises and Evercore flagging STZ‘s FY26 beer guide as conservative. Less rosy: BF/B cut at JPM post-Rémy collapse, CAR missed badly, RV shipments down 14%. Refund stimulus running well below CBO — a quiet macro warning worth noting.
STREET RESEARCH
Upgrades
Victoria Secret Upgrade to Buy at Bank of America
Downgrades
Brown-Forman (BF/B) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $23
Purple Innovation (PRPL) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
Sysco (SYY) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $84
Initiations
N/A
Earnings
SBUX: STARBUCKS Q2 BLOWOUT — NORTH AMERICA COMPS +7%, FY26 GUIDE RAISED MEANINGFULLY
Starbucks delivered a decisive F2Q26 print with global comps up 6.2% and US SSS up 7.1%, well above the ~3.7% Street and even ahead of buyside expectations near 6%. Transactions drove the upside (+4pts), with average ticket contributing roughly 3% — a structurally cleaner mix than pricing-led comps. Management raised FY26 global/US SSS guidance to 5%+ (from 3%+) and lifted adj. EPS to $2.25-$2.45 (from $2.15-$2.40). North America EBIT margin remained pressured (-195bps) on commodities and labor, but momentum continued into April. International returned to +2.6% with all top 10 markets positive for the first time in nine quarters.
“Positive comp trends have continued through April.”
Earnings call notables:
“We haven’t seen a lot of the macro effects trickle into consumer behavior as it relates to Starbucks.”
Spend growth was broad-based across all income levels and age demographics
New Energy Refreshers launched in April have exceeded expectations
Elevated gas prices and broader macro uncertainty are risks to consumer behavior in the back half
“… if it’s on the low income side where it is seen as a bit of a splurge and it’s a little bit of indulgence, then by all means, we need to have those drinks that they want, and then we need to give them the experience where they feel like, you know what, for their hard earned dollar, it was well worth the spend. And that’s the feedback we’re getting.”
Trading take: Setup is constructive but not as clean as the headline traffic number suggests. The +7.1% NA comp and best-traffic-in-three-years narrative are powerful catalysts that will dominate the morning tape — expect a strong gap of +8 to +12% on the open. The wrinkle that sophisticated holders will dissect: NA operating margin missed despite the massive revenue beat, meaning Green Apron labor investment + coffee + tariffs are still real margin headwinds and the leverage story is delayed. BTIG explicitly flags this as the gating factor for "the next leg higher."
YUM: YUM BRANDS BEATS Q1 EPS BY 13C, REVENUE EDGES CONSENSUS, REAFFIRMS LONG-TERM ALGORITHM
Yum! Brands reported Q1 EPS of $1.50, beating consensus of $1.37 by 13c. Revenue came in at $2.06B versus $2.04B consensus. The company reiterated its long-term financial framework first introduced in 2022, targeting 5% unit growth, 7% system sales growth ex-FX, and at least 8% core operating profit growth on a multi-year average basis. The print underscores the durability of the asset-light model across KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, even as the broader QSR backdrop remains choppy. Yum is among names flagged for elevated option volume into the print, with focus on international comps and digital mix progression.
EAT: SOLID F3Q IN-LINE BEAT WITH CHILI’S COMPS REACCELERATING TO MID-SINGLE-DIGITS, FY26 LOW-END RAISED
F3Q operating EPS of $2.90 beat consensus $2.86 and RJE $2.84, driven by lower G&A; sales and store margins were largely in line. Chili’s comps came in at +4.0% (vs. consensus +4.3%), but the cadence is the real story: January was only +0.6% (Winter Storm Fern + Christmas calendar shift), while February and March both ran +5.9%. Traffic was -1.2% reported but likely +1.0–1.5% ex-weather/calendar. Pricing was +4.6%, check +5.2%. Store margins of 18.4% declined 50 bps y/y on COGS (+65 bps) and opex (+50 bps) headwinds, partially offset by labor leverage. EBITDA of $223.7M beat $220.4M. Maggiano’s remains a drag (-4.6% comps, margins -470 bps). FY26 guide raised at the low end to $10.60–10.85 (implying F4Q EPS ~$3.03 vs. consensus $3.05) and embeds positive MSD comps in F4Q. $108M returned via buybacks.
Trading take: Indicated +3% pre-market, retracing recent weakness tied to gasoline/consumer-spending fears. The exit-quarter cadence (+5.9% Feb/Mar) and embedded MSD F4Q guide are the bullish anchors and should support follow-through buying intraday, but the stock has been volatile and the 52-week range ($100–$187) shows how quickly sentiment turns. I’d expect early strength to be faded somewhat as bears point to the slight comp miss vs. consensus and the F4Q EPS guide being a touch below Street.
COCO: EXPLOSIVE 1Q BEAT-AND-RAISE WITH 30% VOLUME GROWTH AND BRANDED COCONUT WATER ACCELERATING ACROSS BOTH GEOGRAPHIES
A blowout quarter on essentially every line. Organic sales beat by 22 percentage points: Americas +30.4% vs. Street +12.6% (volumes +26%, price/mix +4.4%), International +65.0% vs. Street +22.9% (volumes +50.2%, price/mix +14.8%). Vita Coco branded coconut water volumes +32%, private label +27%. Sales of $180M beat by ~$30M (+20% vs. Street). Gross margin of 39.9% expanded 322 bps y/y and beat by ~350 bps on lower ocean freight and pricing. Adjusted EBITDA of $39M crushed Street’s $26M (+49%); EBITDA margin 21.5%. Balance sheet: $202M cash, no debt. AR built sharply (+48% vs. Street) reflecting timing of strong gross sales. FY26 guide raised: net sales to $720–735M (from $680–700M, +6% midpoint raise) and Adjusted EBITDA to $132–138M (from $122–128M, +8% raise). Gross margin held at ~38%. Tariff and Iran geopolitical risks flagged.
Trading take: This is the cleanest beat-and-raise in the group and the kind of print that triggers gap-and-go behavior. Stock was at $51.63 with PT $63 (+22%); I’d expect a pre-market gap of +12 to +18% on the magnitude of the beat plus the guide raise, with the International volume number (+50%) being the standout the buy side hadn’t modeled. The setup favors holding the open — categories with this kind of volume acceleration and gross margin expansion typically see analyst PT raises throughout the morning that fuel intraday continuation. Watch for: (1) AR build commentary on the call (only minor pushback risk), (2) any tariff guidance refinement. Consensus didn’t have it; HFs will chase. The 52-week high is $61.39 — that’s the magnet. Best risk/reward is buying any early dip below the opening print into the call, with a stop below VWAP.
ADIDAS. Strong print with 14% org sales growth (beat). Gross Margins light, EBIT ahead. FY guidance unchanged. Positives include Greater China, Apparel (likely benefit from World Cup) and DTC … less stellar in footwear, Europe and wholesale.
MDLZ: SOLID Q1 BEAT FIRMS GROWTH FLOOR AS EMERGING MARKETS ACCELERATE AND DEVELOPED MARKETS SHOW GREEN SHOOTS
Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.67 beat Mizuho’s $0.62 and Street’s $0.61, with non-operating items only +$0.01 contribution. Organic sales +3% (price +3.5%, vol/mix -0.5%) vs. Mizuho flat — a clean vol/mix-driven beat. Net sales beat Street by 320 bps. Gross margin 30.7% beat Street’s 29.7% on operating leverage (mix-accretive China). EBIT margin 11.7% vs. Street 11.3%. Emerging Markets organic +6.3% (best vol/mix since 4Q23): Brazil +HSD%, India “strong +DD%”, China +MSD% (better than expected). LatAm +5.1%, AMEA +11.3% (vs. +2% comp). Developed Markets +0.8% but Europe is showing share gains (UK chocolate, Easter execution) and North America growth channels (c-stores/club/value) are inflecting. FY26 guide reaffirmed — organic sales flat to +2%, EPS $2.98–3.13 — with management explicitly intending to reinvest any upside. Mizuho raised FY26E EPS to $3.11 (from $3.08), FY27E to $3.50 (from $3.47); PT held at $67.
Trading take: This is a quality print but not a guidance raise — and that’s the rub for a name already at $58.54 with implied modest upside to PT. The Street-beat magnitude (~320 bps on revenue, GM 100 bps better) supports a constructive reaction, but the reaffirmed FY26 guide and explicit reinvestment narrative caps the squeeze potential. Expect a +2 to +4% open with mean-reverting price action through the morning unless the call delivers more concrete vol/mix inflection commentary on North America and Europe Q2. Cocoa cost commentary (~£2,500/ton current vs. ~£5,000 hedged) is a 2H26/2027 tailwind story, not an immediate catalyst. The Mideast exposure (~1.5% of sales, Bahrain facility) is a real overhang and will be a Q&A focus. Best traded as a defensive long into staples rotation rather than an event-driven momentum setup; the asymmetric upside requires confidence in Q4E vol/mix inflection that the Street will need more proof points to underwrite.
CAR: AVIS BUDGET MISSES Q1 EPS BY 87C, REVENUE BEATS CONSENSUS
Avis Budget Group reported Q1 EPS of ($8.01), 87c worse than the ($7.14) consensus. Revenue came in at $2.53B versus $2.43B consensus. The deeper-than-expected loss reflects continued fleet-cost pressure, residual value normalization on used-vehicle disposals, and elevated interest expense on the fleet financing book. The revenue beat suggests pricing and utilization remain reasonably firm, but the unit economics on the fleet-cost line continue to overwhelm the top-line story. CAR shares are flagged for elevated option volume around the print and were highlighted in unusual put-volume screens, consistent with cautious positioning into the release.
Analyst Actions
VSCO: VICTORIA’S SECRET DOUBLE UPGRADED TO BUY AT BOFA, PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $68 FROM $58
BofA Securities’ Mary Sport upgraded Victoria’s Secret to Buy from Neutral with a $68 PT (from $58). The thesis: sales momentum continues, supporting mid-to-high-teens EPS growth driven by operating margin expansion from the current 6%. Sport sees the new management team taking the right steps to turn the brand and create sustainable sales growth. F26/F27 EPS estimates raised by 3%/14% reflecting improved sales and margin trajectory, with leverage on higher sales, AUR opportunities, and efficiency initiatives more than offsetting growth investments. The call positions VSCO alongside the broader specialty-apparel turnaround cohort. Shares closed at $51.73 prior, implying meaningful upside on the BofA framework. The brand-reset narrative regains credibility.
VFC: Needham Bullish Into F4Q26; Vans Return to Growth Would Be “Thesis-Changer”
Needham reiterates Buy with a $25 PT into late-May F4Q26 results, with the analyst arguing Vans continues to show “green shoots” — styles selling out at Foot Locker and JD, accelerating DTC and online search data, and fashion media flagging a skater-shoe resurgence. Assuming Vans hit guidance of -MSD in Q4, the firm models sequential improvement to -LSD in Q1, a domestic return to growth by Q2/Q3, and total brand growth potentially by back-to-school/Holiday — well ahead of Street consensus that has Vans roughly flat across FY27. The analyst frames this as a “story stock” rather than a “beat numbers” story, with the stock still down >80% from its high vs. the SPX more than doubling. Outdoor brands (TNF, Timberland) are in their seasonal trough at ~15% of annual revs but maintain solid domestic brand heat and strong Fall/Winter sell-through, supporting F/W26 order books.
PRPL: PURPLE INNOVATION DOWNGRADED TO SECTOR WEIGHT AT KEYBANC ON ONGOING INDUSTRY SOFTNESS
KeyBanc’s Bradley Thomas downgraded Purple Innovation to Sector Weight from Overweight. 1Q EBITDA was above expectations and sales were on plan (reported revenue below due to an accounting change that doesn’t affect EBITDA). Industry trends remain choppy, but PRPL benefited from expanded wholesale distribution at Mattress Firm and strong showroom comps. PRPL announced a CFO transition with former La-Z-Boy CFO Bob Lucian joining and maintained its 2026 EBITDA guide. While Thomas remains positive on the company, products, and upside in an industry recovery, the combination of ongoing industry softness and PRPL’s leverage drove the downgrade. Shares closed at $0.64 — the call reflects a defensive posture rather than a bear-case thesis on the brand or product.
SBUX: STREET LIFTS PRICE TARGETS ACROSS THE BOARD POST-PRINT — BAIRD $117, EVERCORE $115, WELLS FARGO $115
Starbucks saw a coordinated wave of price target increases following the F2Q blowout. Bulls (Baird $117 from $112 OP, Evercore $115 from $110 OP, Wells Fargo $115 from $110 OW, Bernstein $100 OP reiterated) emphasize the inflection in transaction-driven comps, the durability of the “Back to Starbucks” reset, and operational tailwinds from store renovations (only 300 of 8,000 done), the relaunched loyalty program, and energy/protein platform innovations. Wells Fargo’s Herzog notes NA EBIT margin remains a “work in progress” but sees more upside ahead. Skeptics (Jefferies $95 Hold, UBS $105 Neutral, Citi $101 Neutral) acknowledge the strong execution but flag stretched valuation and the need for FY27 margin flow-through at 50%+ in NA to justify multiple expansion. Consensus is the turnaround is working; the debate is whether shares already discount the recovery.
HLT: HILTON PRICE TARGETS RAISED ACROSS THE STREET — BARCLAYS $365, MIZUHO $326, TRUIST $312
Hilton Worldwide drew bullish PT revisions across Barclays ($365 from $363 OW), Mizuho ($326 from $321 Neutral), and Truist ($312 from $307 Hold). The action contrasts sharply with the more cautious tone on Booking Holdings and reflects greater confidence in the asset-light lodging model’s RevPAR and unit-growth trajectory. Group and business transient demand strength continues to offset softer leisure trends in select urban markets. Investors view Hilton as the higher-quality compounder in the lodging C-corp space given fee-driven economics and capital-light expansion. The setup into the print is constructive, with sell-side modeling continued mid-single-digit RevPAR growth and strong net unit growth.
KO: COCA-COLA PRICE TARGETS RAISED ON STRONG Q1 — TD COWEN $90, BARCLAYS $85, VOLUME UPSIDE NOTED
Coca-Cola drew positive PT revisions following strong Q1 results. TD Cowen raised to $90 from $85 (Buy) noting Coke remains the top pick on pricing power, consistent volume growth, and resilience to volatile macro and commodity conditions; raised FY26 EPS to $3.27 (+9%) versus guide of +8-9%. Barclays’ Lieberman raised to $85 from $83 (OW), highlighting the pattern under coverage where volume-led OSG beats are rewarded. Unit case volume above expectations validates the System-wide focus on quality volume growth. Tone remained “confident yet grounded” with management acknowledging macro uncertainty. Coke’s premium valuation continues to be supported by best-in-class execution and category-leading volume momentum across both developed and emerging markets.
MDLZ: MONDELEZ PRICE TARGETS RAISED ON CLEAN Q1 BEAT — TD COWEN $67, BARCLAYS $68 BOTH OVERWEIGHT
Mondelez drew positive PT revisions following a Q1 beat. TD Cowen raised to $67 (from $65) Buy, citing better-than-expected 1Q EPS of $0.67 (cons. $0.61) and organic growth of 3.0% (cons. 0.6%), with favorable European retail negotiations, EM momentum, and stronger US execution. The firm raised FY26 EPS to $3.09 but lowered FY27 to $3.42 on management’s intention to reinvest cocoa deflation. Barclays raised to $68 (from $67) OW. The print reinforces Mondelez as a relative winner in global packaged food, with the snacking-driven portfolio mix and pricing/promo execution supporting volume recovery. The reinvestment of cocoa cost relief, while pressuring near-term FY27 EPS, supports the durability of brand equity and longer-term growth runway.
SRAD: SPORTRADAR PRICE TARGETS CUT — TRUIST $18, WELLS FARGO $17, CITIZENS $26 FOLLOWING Q1 EBITDA MISS
Sportradar Group saw broad PT cuts after the first miss in 2+ years. Truist lowered to $18, Wells Fargo to $17 (from $24, OW maintained), Citizens to $26 (from $31, MO). The €347M revenue and €66M EBITDA missed consensus across the board on FX (~€12M headwind), gaming-outcome volatility, and shifting ad budgets. Wells Fargo flagged a -27% week-over-week stock decline against multiple short reports, a CEO LinkedIn response, an accelerated earnings call, a new COO, a 6-K on KYC/compliance, and an expanded buyback authorization. Despite the miss, management reiterated full-year guidance. Bulls argue valuation is now compelling, but consensus has a higher bar to defend the broader sports-data group following multiple disappointments.
CZR: CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT PRICE TARGETS RAISED — CITIZENS $35, WELLS FARGO $26 FOLLOWING IN-LINE Q1
Caesars Entertainment drew positive PT revisions following an in-line Q1. Citizens raised to $35 (from $34) Market Outperform, citing $887M EBITDAR matching consensus with Vegas EBITDAR better than feared on a strong group/convention schedule. Wells Fargo raised to $26 (from $24) Equal Weight after a small EBITDAR beat, taking up Vegas (better gaming) and Regional (Windsor) while lowering digital (lower flow-through). Vegas occupancy declined 90bps but group demand drove higher hotel pricing. Management guided softer 2Q Vegas with weaker April hold but still above consensus. The Tahoe renovation completion, Caesars Windsor M&A, and World Cup tailwinds support 2-4Q regional EBITDAR growth of +2%. Solid setup into the summer.
TPR: TAPESTRY PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $165 AT BAIRD, OUTPERFORM RATING MAINTAINED
Baird’s Mark Altschwager raised the Tapestry price target to $165 from $160 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The action reflects continued confidence in the Coach-led portfolio’s brand momentum, particularly in handbags and small leather goods, against a mixed backdrop for accessible luxury globally. Tapestry shares have outperformed peers Capri Holdings and broader specialty retail over the past several quarters as Coach’s product-led recovery continues to drive average unit retail expansion. Investor focus remains on the Stuart Weitzman/Kate Spade trajectories and capital-allocation priorities post the failed Capri merger. Higher AUR mix and disciplined inventory management support the bull case.
TSCO: TRACTOR SUPPLY PRICE TARGET CUT TO $52 AT TELSEY, OUTPERFORM MAINTAINED ON SOFTER START
Telsey’s Joseph Feldman lowered the Tractor Supply price target to $52 from $63 while maintaining Outperform. Tractor Supply reiterated 2026 guidance and noted a pickup in April sales as Spring took hold, targeting Q2-Q4 comps of 1-3%. The year started softer than expected, but improved Q2 trends give confidence the FY guide can be achieved. Tractor Supply is addressing companion-animal weakness by adding cat and fresh foods. The new $52 PT reflects ~24x P/E (in line with historical) on revised 2026 EPS estimate of $2.15 (down from $2.19). Rural-lifestyle and companion-animal categories remain the multi-year growth drivers; weather-driven seasonal volatility continues to dominate the near-term comp narrative.
CRI: CARTERS PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $33 AT WELLS FARGO, UNDERWEIGHT MAINTAINED ON Q2 GUIDE RISK
Wells Fargo’s Ike Boruchow raised the Carter’s price target to $33 from $28 while maintaining Underweight. The model is improving at a high level — 1Q likely marks four consecutive quarters of positive comps under new CEO Paladini’s demand-creation focus on product, marketing, and full-price selling, with collaborations (Umbra, Tyrese Haliburton) replacing the heavily-discounted prior model. However, Boruchow flags risk to QTD/2Q guidance and does not see upward FY revisions following this print. Tariff impact continues to weigh on margin improvement. The PT bump reflects modeling adjustments rather than a thesis change; Wells remains skeptical the stock can sustain its momentum without a clear margin inflection. Children’s apparel remains a structurally challenged subcategory.
BF-B: BROWN-FORMAN DOWNGRADED TO UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN, PRICE TARGET CUT TO $23 FROM $27
JPMorgan’s Drew Levine downgraded Brown-Forman to Underweight from Neutral with a $23 PT (from $27) following the announcement that BF and Rémy Cointreau terminated merger talks. With BF appearing less receptive to a potential Sazerac takeover bid and the press release wording emphasizing internal strategic priorities, Levine refocuses on fundamentals, returning to Underweight after a brief Neutral upgrade a month ago. The new $23 PT reflects a 15% premium to large-cap spirits peers’ weighted-average P/E (13.2x) and EV/EBITDA (11.3x) CY26E multiples on unchanged CY27 estimates of $1.68 EPS and $1.18B EBITDA. The American whiskey share concentration likely makes any Sazerac deal subject to extended regulatory review.
SYY: SYSCO PRICE TARGET LOWERED TO $86 AT BARCLAYS, OVERWEIGHT RATING MAINTAINED; CITI MORE POSITIVE, ADDING SYY TO ‘CATALYST WATCH’ ON JETRO ACQUISITION
Barclays’ Jeffrey Bernstein lowered the Sysco price target to $86 from $92 while maintaining Overweight. The cut reflects more cautious near-term expectations for the broadline foodservice distributor amid an uneven independent-restaurant traffic backdrop and ongoing competitive pressure from US Foods and Performance Food Group. Sysco’s structural competitive advantages — scale, route density, and private-label penetration — remain intact, but case-volume dynamics across the local customer base have softened relative to prior expectations. Investor focus is on local-case growth versus the corporate/multi-unit channel, gross-margin trajectory, and progress on the Recipe-for-Growth strategic plan. The OW reiteration signals confidence the structural story remains durable despite near-term modeling resets.
Citi ups Sysco target, adds ‘upside 30-day catalyst watch. Citi analyst Karen Holthouse raised the firm’s price target on Sysco to $80 from $78 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the fiscal report. Citi also added an “upside 30-day catalyst watch” on Sysco. The shares could move higher into the May event focused on the Jetro acquisition, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
SFD: SMITHFIELD FOODS PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $32 AT BARCLAYS, OVERWEIGHT MAINTAINED
Barclays’ Benjamin Theurer raised the Smithfield Foods price target to $32 from $30, maintaining Overweight. The PT increase reflects continued confidence in the pork producer’s vertically-integrated model and improving hog supply-demand dynamics. Smithfield benefits from packaged-meats brand strength alongside fresh-pork operations, with the packaged-meats segment providing margin stability through commodity-price volatility. The recent IPO has attracted incremental long-only interest given the relative scarcity of pure-play protein names. Investor focus is on hog-cycle positioning, packaged-meats pricing power, and the trajectory of operating margins as Smithfield laps a difficult comparison period in the fresh-pork business through the back half of 2026.
PII: POLARIS INDUSTRIES PRICE TARGETS RAISED — BAIRD $70, BOFA $74, CITI $70 ON BETTER POWERSPORTS TONE
Polaris Industries drew positive PT revisions across multiple firms — Baird raised to $70 (from $67) Neutral, BofA Securities to $74, and Citi to $70. The action follows a less-bad print that suggests powersports industry conditions may be stabilizing after several quarters of deep destocking and weak retail demand. Polaris remains levered to discretionary outdoor recreation spending and continues to grapple with elevated channel inventory across off-road vehicles, motorcycles, and snowmobiles. The PT raises do not reflect a fundamental thesis change but rather modeling adjustments. Investors await clearer signs of retail-demand stabilization and dealer-inventory normalization before accepting a more constructive multi-year view on the powersports cycle.
PLNT: PLANET FITNESS PRICE TARGET LOWERED TO $90 AT TD COWEN, BUY RATING MAINTAINED
TD Cowen’s Max Rakhlenko lowered the Planet Fitness price target to $90 from $100 while maintaining Buy. The PT cut reflects modeling adjustments without a thesis change. Planet Fitness continues to execute on its high-value-low-price gym model with strong member growth, accelerating new-build cadence under the Growth Model framework, and pricing power on the Black Card tier. Near-term concerns center on the trajectory of new-store opening pace, marketing-spend efficiency in driving member acquisition, and the multi-year roadmap for ARPU expansion. The Buy reiteration signals continued confidence in the long-term store growth runway and the cash-flow conversion of the franchise-heavy model. Discretionary-services demand remains relatively healthy.
WMT/COST/TGT: Barclays Channel Check- Mass Outperformance Widening, Not Just on Price
Barclays’ latest NielsenIQ read through April 18 shows the mass channel’s unit share gains vs. conventional grocery accelerated in Q1 to date to the highest y/y delta in three years, with the volume gap widening even as the AUR price gap for total food/bev actually narrowed. The firm sees the setup as positive for WMT, COST, and TGT — all of which appear to have improved sequentially — while the read-through for DG and DLTR is “more mixed.” The analyst notes WMT is running a more targeted price-investment strategy: widening the gap in perishables (driving stronger unit share) while letting non-perishable gaps narrow slightly without losing share, yielding more stable headline price/mix and improved price perception. The analyst adds incremental tailwinds beyond price, including stronger natural/organic growth in mass and delivery as a unit-share driver for WMT amid elevated gas prices.
STZ:Evercore Scanner Check- Beer Vols Decelerate in L4 but Firm Sees FY26 Guide as Conservative
Evercore’s latest Circana scanner read shows Modelo L4 volumes +0.5%, decelerating ~425bps sequentially from +4.7% in P4, with total STZ beer slowing ~440bps to +2.0%, and L2 trends weakening more sharply (-785/-880bps for Modelo/STZ). Despite the slowdown, the firm believes the FY26 beer net sales guide of (1)% to +1% is conservative, citing a “solid start” through 4/19 with momentum building (STZ gaining ~1pt of share in California vs. 0.6pts in F4Q), a March BPI inflection (Imports +12 m/m, +8 y/y), easy F1Q–F3Q compares of -2.5% to -3%, large distributors modeling C26 vol growth of +2-3%, World Cup tailwinds skewed to Hispanic consumers, and the potential for new CEO Fink to set a low bar early. Modelo grew vols in 30 states in L4 (>5% in 20) and gained sequential share in 44 states vs. L12.
Macro & News
RV INDUSTRY: WHOLESALE SHIPMENTS DOWN 14% YOY IN MARCH, TOWABLES LEAD DECLINE
Total RV wholesale shipments declined 14% YoY in March to 32,162 units, per Baird. YTD shipments are tracking down 12%; the industry shipped 342,121 units in 2025 (+2.5% vs 2024). Towables fell 16% to 28,484 units — travel trailers down 17%, fifth wheels down 13%, camping trailers down 19%, while truck campers rose 11%. Motorhomes (Class A, B, C) rose 9% to 3,678 units, driven by Class C up 16% and Class B up 5%; Class A fell 7%. Q1 shipments declined 12%. Baird lowered Q1 estimates for LCI Industries and Patrick Industries on softer March-quarter trends. The data reads negative for THO and WGO into earnings; CWH and PATK report this week.
MACRO — ISI: BBB Refund Stimulus Tracking Well Below CBO’s $135B FY26 Projection
Evercore ISI flags that tax refunds are running only ~$45B ahead of last year as of April 24, a fraction of the CBO-projected $135B BBB benefit that was expected to land Feb–April given Treasury didn’t update 2025 withholding tables mid-year. The firm attributes the gap to two factors: at least ~$45B appears to be flowing through reduced 2025 tax liabilities rather than refunds, and another ~$10–25B likely reflects CBO overestimation; lower withholding looks like a minor factor, with withholding growth within 1pt of last year. The analyst notes this matters because MPC out of refunds is materially higher than out of reduced liabilities or paycheck withholding, meaning the consumer impulse could prove weaker than the headline number implied. ISI will update as more IRS filing data comes in.