Consumer Spec - Pre Market Wrap
LYV (+), NWL (+), CHD (+), FND (+), CL (-) Report | Restaurants Green Streak Intact, HPC Split, Newell Tariff-Driven Beat |
I’ll be away from my desk next week, so there will be no new pre-market posts from August 3–7.
The Pre-Market Wrap and regular posting schedule will resume on August 10.
Consumer earnings tape reads better than the BofA scorecard suggests — negative reactions still outweigh positive across Retail and Gaming/Lodging, yet Restaurants remain untouchable with every name closing green post-print. LYV headlines the morning, +2% on record touring and a clean beat, Goldman to $210. NWL rips +17% on beat-and-raise, though IEEPA tariff recoveries flatter the EPS quality. HPC splits: CHD shines +2% on volume-led organic, while CL slips -2% on North America softness. FND +5% as flooring comps beat feared levels, Telsey to $68. Analyst color elsewhere in SHOO, BROS, BIRK.
MACRO & MARKETS
VOLATILE CONSUMER EARNINGS SEASON
Another great highlight from BofA consumer team.
Positive “EPS Day” reactions are shown in green, while negative reactions are shown in red.
Once again, the magnitude of the negative reactions has exceeded that of the positive reactions, particularly across Retail and Gaming/Lodging. Restaurants remain the notable exception, with every company in the group closing higher following earnings so far this season.
CONSUMER STREET RESEARCH
Upgrades
No upgrades in consumer sector today
Downgrades
No downgrades in consumer sector today
Initiations
No initiations in consumer sector today
EARNINGS REPORTS
LYV +2%: QUARTERLY BEAT, WITH STRONG FAN ATTENDANCE AND TICKETING TRENDS SUPPORTING UPSIDE EARNINGS REVISION RISK
The strongest report in consumer sector today.
LYV posted solid upside in 2Q, with adjusted operating income of $817 million versus the Street at $785 million and revenue of $7.66 billion versus $7.53 billion expected. The revenue beat was driven by stronger performance across the Concerts and Ticketing businesses, while management emphasized that underlying demand remains robust.
LYV has a constructive chart considering a potential breakout in the $188 level:
The company noted that live experiences continue to stand out in an increasingly digital and AI-driven world. Artist touring activity is at record levels, while fan engagement remains exceptionally strong, resulting in the highest concert ticket sales in the company’s history.
Goldman raises its PT to 210 from 202 and lifts 2026E AOI ~1% to $2.70B (+14.1% Y/Y), modeling Concerts AOI up low-20s%, Sponsorship mid-teens%, and Ticketmaster mid-single-digit% Y/Y. The analyst notes Concerts revenue ~$6.44B modestly beat but segment EBITDA ~$310M missed the ~$319M mark (4.8% margin shortfall), while Ticketing revenue ~$852M and EBITDA ~$331M cleared ~$769M/~$293M. The firm highlights international as the multi-year driver contributing 70% to 80% of incremental core growth, with FY2027 already well-booked across stadiums, arenas, and amphitheaters.
NWL +7%: BEAT AND RAISE, ALTHOUGH IEEPA TARIFF RECOVERIES DROVE A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EPS UPSIDE
Newell returned to sales growth for the first time in over four years, with revenue at $1.99B (vs $1.98B cons) on core sales +2.3%. EPS came in at $0.42 (vs $0.20 cons) but included $100M pretax tariff recoveries from 2025 plus ~$26M from 1Q26), so underlying was more in-line to modestly above.
Normalized operating margin expanded to 16.2% from 10.7% and EBITDA rose to $406M. Guide: FY EPS raised to $0.73-$0.77 (vs $0.58 cons and $0.56-$0.60 prior) and revenue growth to +1-2% (vs prior flat-2%); 3Q EPS guided $0.18-$0.20 (vs $0.20 cons). CFO Erceg: results were "above our expectations across all key financial metrics." Expect focus on tariff-adjusted core earnings quality.
CL -2%: NORTH AMERICA ORGANIC SALES MISS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR CONTINUED VOLATILITY THROUGH 2026 WEIGH ON A FAVORED HPC NAME
Expect a bit of underperformance, albeit not thesis changing. 2Q EPS of $0.99 vs Consensus $0.95 on in-line revenues. Organic was largely in-line at +2.4% vs Consensus +2.5%. Asia Pac beat (+350 bps) but NA was a decent miss (-3% vs Consensus -1%). Operating margins beat by 80 bps, driven largely by gross margins. They are reaffirming the FY revenue and organic revenue guidance, while tweaking FY EPS up to +MSD vs prior +LSD-MSD (due to higher gross margins). Management “we expect the volatile market conditions to continue in the balance of 2026.”
Barclays highlights a mixed to negative quarter:
While after several multinational companies reported stronger growth in emerging markets we think the bar had been set a bit higher for CL into results, organic sales growth came in roughly in-line with Consensus and fell 20 bps short of our estimate. Notably emerging markets growth decelerated sequentially from 1Q (to +4.8% from +6.2%) even with India growing double-digits and Brazil growing high-single digits. On the bottom line, profit came in far ahead of expectations even with advertising dollars up +15% YoY as gross margins expanded fully 140 bps.
FND +5%: BEAT AND RAISE AS COMPARABLE SALES CAME IN AHEAD OF FEARED LEVELS
EPS came in at $0.58 (vs $0.57 cons) on revenue of $1.25B (vs $1.23B cons) and Adjusted EBITDA of $152.0M (vs $149.9M cons). The standout was comps at (2.1%) vs consensus of (3.6%) though SG&A margin was a touch worse at 38.3% (vs 37.2% expected). Encouragingly, management flagged sequential improvement, with comps improving from a 5.1% decline in April to nearly flat in June.
On guidance, they raised EPS to $1.88-$2.13 (vs $1.91 cons and $1.83-$2.08 guidance) and Adjusted EBITDA to $550M-$585M (vs $555.1M cons and $545M-$580M guidance), while reaffirming revenue and comps. CEO Brad Paulsen said results "exceeded our expectations" and position them "well when demand conditions normalize."
CHD +2%: SOLID QUARTER THAT STOOD OUT AS THE CLEAR BEST REPORT ACROSS HPC
While the flow-through was somewhat underwhelming, organic growth was highly impressive, and management expects the strong momentum to persist through the second half. CHD remains a preferred name within HPC, and that positioning should remain intact.
2Q EPS came in at $0.89 versus consensus of $0.90, while revenue exceeded expectations and organic sales growth reached a strong +5.8% versus consensus of +3.5%. The outperformance was primarily volume-driven, with volumes up +4.3%. Gross margin was in line, though higher SG&A resulted in a 30 bps operating margin miss.
The company guided 3Q EPS to $0.89 versus consensus of $0.93, a few cents below expectations but consistent with CHD’s typical conservatism, while revenue guidance was in line. Management raised the lower end of its FY EPS growth outlook to +6–8% from +5–8% and increased its organic revenue growth forecast by 100 bps to +4–5% from +3–4%.
ANALYST RESEARCH & NEWS
Very light day for high signal, non-earnings-related analyst research.
NCLH: STIFEL LOWERS PT TO 25 ON YIELD OUTLOOK, MAINTAINS BUY
Stifel trimmed NCLH PT to $25 from $26, maintaining Buy. The firm calls the setup a bad relationship, noting disappointment that 2026 yield guidance had to be lowered again despite what looked like conservative April framing. The firm says investors will not sit in a turnaround story until they are confident estimates carry only upside, and the first credibility test is 3Q26 yields above guide with no 4Q26 cut. The firm is now comfortable with 2027 yield estimates at roughly +1% to 2% and views cost improvement as fully embedded, meaning the equity now depends on a yield inflection unlikely to start until mid-2027.
SHOO: CITI RAISES PT TO 55 AFTER Q2 BEAT AND RAISED GUIDANCE
Citi raised SHOO PT to $55 from $45, maintaining Buy after a Q2 beat on sales and gross margin plus a raised FY guide, including higher 2H revenue expectations. The firm views the guide as conservative, with its EPS estimate of $2.32 versus company guidance of $2.05 to $2.15, noting the FY EPS raise was smaller than the beat due to incremental freight partly offset by better underlying trends. The firm cites broad-based fashion tailwinds across a variety of footwear and handbag silhouettes as a driver of the beat.
BROS: TELSEY LIFTS PT TO 74 AHEAD OF STRONG 2Q SETUP
Telsey raised BROS PT to $74 from $66, maintaining Outperform ahead of the 2Q26 print. The firm models sales growth of roughly 26% to $523M with adjusted EBITDA up 18.5% to about $105M, driven by mid-teens new unit growth, food and Myst energy refresher rollouts, price, loyalty and technology leverage, and superior execution. Placer.ai traffic data through 2Q26 flagged as robust and consistent. The firm points to Starbucks 3Q US comp of 7.9% with transactions up 4.2% as evidence of favorable spending on specialty coffee and beverages, supporting the affordable luxury thesis.
FND: TELSEY RAISES PT TO 68 ON CONTINUED FLOORING SHARE GAINS
Telsey raised FND PT to $68 from $61, maintaining Outperform. The firm expects near-term trends to stay subdued given housing pressure but flags continued flooring share gains from store growth, sourcing, scale and value pricing. Long-term drivers cited include HSD annual store openings toward a 500-plus target versus 281 in 2Q26, innovative assortment, higher-margin installation materials and decorative products, regional commercial managers targeting the new home market, and Spartan Surface commercial expansion. New PT based on roughly 30x P/E on a 2027 EPS estimate of $2.25, down from $2.28.
BIRK: GOLDMAN REITERATES BUY WITH 52.50 PT AHEAD OF 3Q RESULTS
Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy on BIRK with a $52.50 PT into the Aug 13 3Q print. The firm sees Birkenstock offering sustained double-digit revenue and EPS growth at an attractive valuation, with modest quarterly phasing tweaks leaving FY26 revenue and margin forecasts largely unchanged. FY26 cFX revenue growth is modeled at +15.3%, above guide and consensus, with the firm confident in a mid-teens revenue and EPS CAGR through FY28. The recently announced second $500M buyback is viewed as a signal of management confidence and a recognition of undervaluation. Shares at 15x FY26E P/E and 13x FY27E are called disconnected from fundamentals given pricing power, incremental capacity, and whitespace.
CROX: BTIG STAYS NEUTRAL AFTER Q2 BEAT ON H2 UNCERTAINTIES
BTIG reiterated Neutral on CROX after a Q2 top and bottom-line beat and higher outlook. The firm notes the Crocs brand returned to slight North America growth for the first time in several quarters, led by sandals at about 15% of brand sales, while HEYDUDE outperformed on DTC momentum and moderating wholesale declines. However, a softer Q3 outlook creates H2 uncertainty at Crocs past peak sandal season, and a Q3 channel revenue recognition change in NA clouds key KPIs. HEYDUDE inflection in H2 overall still requires a significant Q4 acceleration explainable by easy wholesale compares. The firm stays on the sidelines despite an inexpensive valuation.
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EARNINGS CALENDAR
