Consumer Spec - Pre Market Wrap
SJM (+), MTN (-), UNFI (-), ASO (+) Pre | Wolfe Narrow Leadership 2026, GS Housing Flat, Placer.ai Softlines, BofA World Cup Beer/KO, BBG Restaurants Tracker, CROX/TJX/FIVE Constructive, LULU PT Cut,
Strong action in consumer sector in EU with all 3 sub-sectors leading, let’s see if that translates into US. Main driver seems to be anticipation of an Iran deal (Trump apparently told Netenyahu Mon morning that the White House was within days of a breakthrough in talks w/Iran).
Consumer headlines for today include earnings from MTN (-4%) that were highlighted by weaker season pass sales and SJM (+5%) where quarter was intact and earnings guidance came in above. ASO earnings still to come in pre while also have the Oppenheimer and Evercore consumer conferences today.
Discretionary sees negative tape with LULU PT slashed at Citi to 130 and HAS trimmed at Wells, while CROX, TJX, and FIVE buck the trend with constructive desk calls grounded in channel checks, survey work, and alt-data. Wolfe sees narrow market leadership persisting through 2026, with discretionary flagged as a beneficiary of any broadening.
MACRO & MARKETS
WOLFE: NARROW MARKET LEADERSHIP TO PERSIST THROUGH 2026 ON FUND FLOWS AND INDEX CONCENTRATION
Wolfe Research expects narrow market leadership to persist through 2026, citing fund flows and growing benchmark index concentration as key drivers. Markets broadened late last week as investors rotated into more defensive sectors — price action the desk likened to the February 2026 AI Disruption trade — though Wolfe views a durable broadening as requiring a resolution with Iran; any broadening would likely concentrate in select areas including discretionary stocks.
Five drivers underpin continued narrow leadership: fund flows and retail investor participation, scarce secular growth, animal spirits and mega-cap IPOs, mega themes driving the economy, and EPS revisions concentrated in TMT. With the top 10 S&P 500 names making up ~40% of the index, passive flows mechanically reinforce concentration; discretionary flagged as a potential beneficiary of any broadening — relevant positioning read-through for the consumer complex.
GS HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY SCALE: WEEK OF MAY 31: SCALE FLAT SEQUENTIALLY ON MIXED INDICATORS GIVEN UNDERLYING MACRO
Decline in Purchase Apps Offset by Moves in Active Listings and Rates: For the week of May 31 the index was flat sequentially but up 7% YOY, bringing it 17% below the long-term average. Results were led by a 1% sequential decrease in active listings along with median days on market three days below 2019 while mortgage rates declined 5bps to 6.48%. These factors were offset by purchase apps down 3% vs last week along with 1% decline in percent of homes off market in last two weeks and median new listing price. The recent volatility in readings is consistent with our channel checks that point to a continued deceleration in absorptions into the summer, resulting in a pullback in land investments and lot take downs. The weakness continues to be led by the entry level while the higher-end remains relatively stronger.
CONSUMER STREET RESEARCH
Upgrades
No upgrades in consumer sector today
Downgrades
No downgrades in consumer sector today
Initiations
No initiations in consumer sector today
(zzzzzzz……)
EARNINGS REPORTS
SJM +5%: Q4 EPS BEATS BY 12C ON REVENUE BEAT, FY27 EPS GUIDE OF 9.75 TO 10.25
SJM trading +4% in the pre after reporting a better than expected 4Q 2.77 vs cons 2.64 with org sales +6% vs cons 5.4%. Trends were solid across most businesses, with particularly strong profit performance in Frozen Handheld & Spreads and Pet Foods, while adj op margin of 21.3% beat cons 20.2% despite GM in line.
Guidance was generally constructive: FY27 rev growth of 3–4% vs cons 0.5% and EPS 9.75–10.25 vs cons 9.81, but 1Q sales expected to be ~flat due to volume pressure offsetting LSD pricing.
Mgmt cited continued demand resilience, expects to take some pricing near term, but plans to pass through green coffee deflation later in FY27, which will turn pricing into a sales headwind as commodity costs fall. Management cited continued strength of focused strategy and portfolio enhancement, entering FY27 with meaningful momentum.
Options implied 6% move, SI 5%. Call 9am.
UNFI -14% : Q3 EPS IN LINE AT 0.77, REVENUE MISSES; FY26 GUIDANCE MIDPOINTS HELD FLAT
United Natural Foods reported Q3 EPS of 0.77, in line with consensus, on revenue of 7.72 billion versus 7.8 billion expected and down 4.2% Y/Y.
Goldman provided a quick take on the report:
Main issue is the guidance. UNFI narrowed its FY26 guidance with midpoints unchanged, including adj EBITDA to $685mm-$705mm from $680-710mm prior (vs GS/consensus of $693mm/$699mm), adj EPS to $2.40-$2.60 from $2.30-$2.70 prior (vs GS/consensus of $2.52/$2.56), and net sales to $31.1bn-$31.3bn from $31.0-$31.4bn prior (vs GS/consensus of $31.2bn/$31.3bn)
MTN -5%: SOFT QUARTER COMPOUNDED BY WEAK FORWARD PASS SALES AND REDUCED GUIDANCE
Q3 EBITDA was $585.4M (vs $590M cons) with EPS also below at $8.81 (vs. $8.99 consensus) pressured by historically unfavorable western U.S. weather that drove skier visits down 15.5% and Resort Net Revenue down 7.0%, only partly offset by cost discipline.
FY26 guidance was reduced with Resort Reported EBITDA now $735M-$755M (mid below the $750.7M cons) and net income of $128M-$162M. Also early 2026/2027 North American pass unit sales fell ~10%, with days sold down ~8% and dollars down ~5%. CEO Rob Katz conceded "weather conditions remained extremely unfavorable," adding any pass decline "is disappointing" though he believes "visitation typically fully recovers" after poor seasons.
MTN attributed the deceleration over the last few months to timing (military pass and auto-renew), and the broader pass-sales weakness to softer demand as a result of one of the worst snowfalls in its history, driving NA pass visitation down ~17% this past winter. While completely logical, it was also a worse than expected result.
Jefferies provided a positive angle on the report:
The quarterly results and guidance reduction where relatively in line with bearish expectations and the shares’ performance, while the commentary suggests that the forward pass performance is better than the industry overall and customer engagement is trending positively. Our view remains that FY27 onward should reflect meaningfully improved execution, irrespective of the weather, which is not embedded in the shares
ASO +2.9%: CLEAN BEAT AND RAISE WITH STRONG COMPS BUT CONSERVATIVE GUIDE REFLECTS PRESSURED CONSUMER OUTLOOK THROUGH 2026
*Q1 EPS $0.93 vs est $0.91; rev $1.44B in line; comps +2.9% vs est +2.5% and guidance +2-3%; total sales +6.7% on higher traffic and average ticket
*Raised FY26 EPS to $6.40-6.80 from $6.10-6.60 (vs est $6.29); nudged revenue floor to $6.230-6.355B and comps to flat-to-+2% from -1% to +2%; reaffirmed GM 34.5-35.0% and FCF $250-300M
*Clean beat and raise with comps re-accelerating on both traffic and ticket, but the guide stays deliberately conservative; mgmt expects the consumer “under pressure for the duration of 2026”
ANALYST RESEARCH & NEWS
SOFTLINES: GS MAY PLACER.AI TRAFFIC CHECK, BLOOMINGDALE’S AND ROSS STANDOUTS, OLD NAVY SEQUENTIALLY WEAKER
The firm’s May visits-per-venue tracker (sourced via Placer.ai) shows store traffic broadly consistent across coverage vs. April, with department stores stable and Bloomingdale’s posting notably strong Y/Y growth. Off-price and thrift held in, with Ross Dress for Less continuing standout growth and HomeGoods healthy. Within GAP banners trends were mixed — Gap and Banana Republic improved sequentially while Old Navy traffic decelerated — and at URBN, Urban Outfitters firmed while Anthropologie and Free People remained soft. Global brand traffic strengthened sequentially across most names, with Nike Factory stores showing a modest sequential improvement.
AS: BOFA REITERATES BUY, PT $46, ARC’TERYX AND SALOMON DRIVING HIGH-TEENS GROWTH WITH MARGIN UPSIDE
The firm reiterates Buy on Amer Sports with a $46 PO (35.8% upside), arguing the current 20x multiple is inexpensive for a name compounding high-teens sales growth with margin upside and eight consecutive quarters of growth across every segment, region, and channel. The analyst frames Arc’teryx as the anchor — transitioning from specialty equipment to performance/lifestyle with high-teens sales growth modeled over the next three years — and Salomon as the “multiplier,” having scaled from ~$1bn to ~$2bn in five years and supporting consolidated GM expansion via softgoods. EPS has gone from -$0.50 in F22 to $0.97 in F25, and the $46 PO is now based on 32x F27E P/E (a slight premium to high-growth peers), with methodology shifted from EV/EBITDA to P/E given the cleaner balance sheet.
STAPLES: BOFA SIZES 2026 WORLD CUP LIFT TO BEER AND CSDS, KO BEST POSITIONED ON SPONSORSHIP
Using 1994 (the last US-hosted Cup) as the proxy given today’s beer volumes are broadly in line with that period, the firm embeds a ~0.8mm barrel/40bps World Cup benefit within its 2026 US beer shipment forecast of -4.8mm barrels Y/Y (-2.6%). The analyst notes the 1994 lift was spread May–August rather than concentrated in match months — implying brewer/distributor inventory build and replenishment — versus the more concentrated, post-event drawdown pattern seen around the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, which suggests the industry overestimated demand. On CSDs, the firm expects a category benefit from elevated at-home and away-from-home occasions, with KO best positioned given its role as a primary tournament sponsor enhancing brand visibility vs. peers. Ratings unchanged across covered names.
RESTAURANTS: BOFA MAY BLOOMBERG SECOND MEASURE TRACKER IMPROVES M/M, MCD AND CMG ACCELERATE, WING AND PTLO DECELERATE
Bloomberg Second Measure card data show industry y/y median observed sales improving to -3.6% in May from -4.3% in April, with the 2-yr stack improving to -3.3% from -5.0%. In QSR, the firm flags MCD (-2.6% vs -5.3%), BK (+6.2% vs +5.6%), KFC (-7.6% vs -8.6%), and PLK (-6.5% vs -9.3%) as improving, with WEN decelerating modestly (-11.3% vs -10.5%) and pizza mixed (PH improved, DPZ decelerated to -4.8% from -4.2%). Coffee improved across the board with SBUX (+2.3% vs +1.1%), BROS (+14.1% vs +12.2%), and TH (-4.8% vs -8.0%); Fast Casual was mixed with SG (+2.6% vs -2.9%) and CMG (+3.5% vs +0.7%) accelerating, while SHAK, WING (partly promo timing per the analyst), PTLO, and CAVA decelerated. In FSR, TXRH (+5.0% vs +2.6%), CAKE (+3.1% vs +0.4%), and CBRL (-5.3% vs -7.4%) improved against easier comps, while DRI’s Olive Garden, BLMN’s Outback and Carrabba’s, FWRG, and EAT decelerated.
ELF: MS FLAGS BASE SCANNER DATA DECELERATING TO -0.5% IN LATEST 4-WEEK, MAINTAIN EW $59 PT
The firm notes base ELF (ex-Naturium) all-channel US Nielsen scanner sales growth (including Amazon 1P) slowed to -0.5% in the latest 4-week period ended 5/30, well below +2.8% over the latest 12 weeks. The analyst flags that total ELF reads are boosted by Naturium’s transition to an Amazon 1P model (now scanner-tracked) plus the brand’s Spring Walmart launch, keeping focus on the base trend. ELF Cosmetics market share (~70% of total ELF scanner sales) declined -155 bps Y/Y in the latest 4-week, in line with the prior 4-weeks. MS maintains Equal-weight with a $59 PT vs. $49.57 close (6/5).
SN: BOFA MAINTAINS BUY, 2Q26 DOMESTIC SELL-THROUGH ACCELERATES TO +18.2% VS INDUSTRY +1.8%
Nielsen POS data show domestic SharkNinja sell-through up +25.6% and +26.7% in the weeks ended 5/23 and 5/30 (+26.1% combined) vs. industry +1.4%, taking 2Q26 QTD to +18.2% from +16.2% two weeks ago and above 1Q26’s +16.6%. The firm maintains Buy with a $145 PO (22.6% upside) and stays comfortable with its +10.0% 2Q26E domestic growth estimate. The analyst also highlights TikTok-driven virality — the Ninja Auto Barista generated 6.5M+ combined views post 5/27 launch, while a clip of Aryna Sabalenka using the Shark ChillPill at Roland Garros drove 11M+ views with another 4M+ in follow-on content — noting DTC platforms add an estimated 200-300 bps to sales growth.
CROX: WILLIAMS TRADING RAISES PT TO 150 FROM 120, REITERATES BUY ON CHANNEL CHECKS
Williams Trading raised CROX PT to 150 from 120, reiterating Buy and lifting estimates following product presentations at Crocs and HEYDUDE showrooms and proprietary checks with wholesale partners at FFANY (The New York Shoe Show). The desk sees both brands creating more compelling product offerings and — more importantly — committing to a more measured and targeted product segmentation and distribution strategy that should drive stronger sales and margins. Many domestic wholesale accounts are becoming more optimistic on both brands now that the marketplace is clean, and top-to-top meetings went well. Revised FY26 estimates sit above current guidance but are not overly aggressive; the firm expects management to raise FY26 guide when 2Q26 earnings are released in late July.
CPB: STEPHENS HOLDS EW AT 21; BERNSTEIN CUTS PT TO 18 ON RTS SOUP AND SNACKS WEAKNESS
Mixed post-print broker reception with two desks calibrating differently after CPB’s 3QF26 results. Bull case (Stephens, EW reiterated, PT 21): the print delivered modestly better-than-expected profitability despite softer sales; Meals & Beverages remains the healthier segment, supported by at-home cooking trends and robust Rao’s consumption. Goldfish and Fresh Bakery execution showing early signs of improvement, though Snacks still needs work — particularly Salty, where assortment, innovation, price-pack architecture and retail execution all need sharpening. Inflationary pressure across oil, freight and packaging is a headwind with limited pricing flexibility; dividend emphasis could stabilize shares, but investors will want tangible consumption and margin recovery before getting constructive. Bear case (Bernstein, Underperform reiterated, PT lowered to 18 from 19): modest beat (+1.8% EBIT, +2c EPS) came after last quarter’s guide cut, with adjusted EBIT down 24% and EPS down 32% Y/Y — still well below the long-term algorithm. RTS soup (particularly Chunky) is still declining rapidly despite management’s tough-comp explanation; snacks weakness viewed as the more durable structural concern. Fresh bread execution improving as supply chain issues clear.
LULU: CITI CUTS PT TO 130 FROM 185, MAINTAINS NEUTRAL — NO EASY NEAR-TERM FIX
Citi lowered its Lululemon PT to 130 from 185 — roughly a 30% cut — while maintaining Neutral, citing no easy near-term fix for the upscale athleisure brand. The desk highlighted that LULU posted its first overall negative comp since the pandemic-induced 2020 print in 1Q26, with comps likely to be further pressured through F26. China comps are decelerating into very difficult 2H26 compares. Consensus 2027 numbers are flagged as too high, implying further negative revisions ahead. The Neutral rating preserves optionality but signals the desk does not yet see a compelling risk/reward at current levels. The PT reduction adds to a deteriorating sentiment backdrop on the name with relevant read-through for NKE and the broader athletic complex.
HAS: WELLS FARGO LOWERS PT TO 85 FROM 92, EW MAINTAINED — EXODUS LAUNCH KEY TO STOCK
Wells Fargo trimmed its Hasbro PT to 85 from 92 while reiterating Equal Weight, with the company’s foray into AAA console gaming via Exodus — set to launch early next year — flagged as key to the stock. The desk skews cautious into the launch given the new IP, a crowded release calendar, and the high bar to success implied by its scenario work. Warlock, slated for later 2027, looks more compelling in the firm’s view and may carry the stronger setup over time. The Equal Weight rating reflects continued sideline positioning despite Magic: The Gathering momentum and digital portfolio strength; the PT cut places Wells below the broader sell-side average and adds incrementally cautious sentiment around the AAA gaming pivot.
TJX: UBS REITERATES BUY AT 197 PT, SURVEY DATA POINTS TO CONTINUED SHARE GAINS
UBS reiterated Buy and 197 PT on TJX after its 9th annual US Off-Price and Department Store Consumer Survey reinforced the structural share-gain thesis. Three takeaways: (1) TJ Maxx is associated with good value for money by 71% of consumers versus ~47% for Macy’s and other department stores — a ~24 point gap on the attribute that matters most in store choice (71% importance), reinforcing a durable competitive moat; (2) TJ Maxx customers expect a +14% net increase in shopping frequency over the next 12 months versus -1% for the overall retail survey — a ~15 point relative demand advantage supportive of a double-digit EPS CAGR; (3) “large variety/selection” as a reason to shop surged to 78% from 44% in Wave 8 and 37% in Wave 6, indicating a widening assortment moat versus Department Store peers including M.
FIVE: BOFA REITERATES BUY AT 305 PT, TOP PICK CITED AFTER RECENT PULLBACK
BofA reiterated Buy on Five Below with a 305 PT, calling it the top pick within the broader value/discount space after a recent pullback. Merchant-led initiatives are driving the upside: more core and rounded price points, “extreme value” items priced above 5, newness, and improved seasonal and studio royalty merchandising are flagged as primary traffic drivers. Mix shift to higher price points supports AUR and could drive multi-year comps upside. PT is based on 30x FY28 EPS of ~10, modestly above the 10-year average multiple of 28 to 29x — justified by stronger comp and EPS growth potential. Bloomberg Second Measure alt-data shows FIVE sales up 16% Y/Y; the stock screens as undervalued on BofA’s predicted-vs-actual P/E framework, ranking above the regression line.
EARNINGS CALENDAR
